Formation of preferences for democracy and market economy in sub-Saharan Africa

Project manager: Prof. Dr. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln

This project examined the determinants of support for democracy worldwide, with a particular focus on Africa. A central prerequisite for the successful democratization of a country is the acceptance of this system of government by the population. While inherent preferences for economic systems are usually considered constant in economics, recent research has shown that there is a certain “habituation effect” in the sense that popular support for an economic system tends to grow the longer it exists. In political research, it has not yet been possible to causally deduce such a habituation effect. The question of the determinants of support for democracy is particularly important for Africa, as many African states are still in transition from authoritarian to democratic systems, such as the states of the “Arab Spring”. Authoritarian systems may, on the one hand, have had a lasting impact on the preferences of the population to favor such a style of leadership or, on the other hand, may create a desire for democracy and strong ownership in the economic sphere.

Based on data from the World Values Survey and the Afrobarometer from 104 countries, this project has succeeded in demonstrating endogenous political preferences. The longer a person has lived under a democratic regime, the stronger their support for the regime. A causal effect can be demonstrated by exploiting differences in the so-called “democratic capital stock” at an individual level. These are driven by differences in individual age and in the history of the 104 countries. This allows the analysis to control for factors at the year-country level that should also influence support, such as the quality of political institutions and the economic development of the country.

This project was carried out in co-authorship with Matthias Schündeln.

Presentations on the project were given in seminars at the Universities of Göttingen, Bocconi and Cologne, as well as at the Annual Conference of the Society of Economic Dynamics.
The results of the research project were published as: Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola/Schündeln, Matthias (2015): ‘On the Endogeneity of Political Preferences: Evidence from Individual Experience with Democracy’, Science 347(6226), 1145-1148.

The results were also discussed in the following articles:
“Das passt so”, Wissenschaftsteil der Süddeutschen Zeitung, 6.3.2015
“Demokraten aus Gewohnheit”, Tagesspiegel, 6.3.2015
“Demokratie mit der Zeit beliebter”, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Rhein-Main Zeitung), 17.3.2015
“Demokratie: Gewohnheit macht Unterstützer”, Bild der Wissenschaft, 6.3.2015
“Immer mehr Demokratien, dennoch in der Krise”, ORF, 9.3.2015